The U.S. agricultural trade deficit, forecast at a record $30.5 billion this fiscal year, will narrow in the near term as exchange rates improve and trading partners gain economic strength, said the Agriculture Department.
“Ongoing trends, such as growing domestic demand for both high-value agricultural goods and year-round availability of produce, are expected to continue to bolster imports to the United States,” said USDA analysts.
“Due to the relative strength of the current U.S. economy, the trade deficit is expected to be largest in 2024 at $30.5 billion and then narrow as conditions, such as moderating exchange rates, facilitate the slowing of imports.”
After years of surpluses, accompanied by proclamations that the United States was feeding the world, food and ag trade has posted a deficit in four of the past five years.
The deficit is forecast to fall to $25.6 billion in fiscal 2025, and then taper to $14.7 billion in 2028, with deficits continuing through 2033.
“Though a measure of interest to many, the agricultural trade balance ignores several important issues,” said the USDA.
These include increased access to foods not adequately produced in the United States, such as tropical products, and perishables provided in the off-season.
Further, trade allows access to lower-cost processed foods and specialty high-value products.
Some 64 percent of U.S. food and ag imports are horticultural products, such as fruits, vegetables, wine, malt beer, distilled spirits, sugar. and tropical products, like coffee and cocoa.
Those imports are forecast to be worth $127.8 billion this year. The same categories for U.S. exports would total $46 billion.
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